SCENERIES OF THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF MANGROVES ON THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL FROM THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SPECIES MODEL

Abstract

This article analyzes the influence of climatic requirements and the influence on the relative sea level, in the potential distribution of mangroves on the northern and northeastern Brazilian coast, comparing projections from 6,000 years, in the years of 2015 and 2050, from the species distribution model. For this model, Maxent software was used, from eleven weather variables and three variables related to the relative sea level. All of them were converted to a net with resolution of 2.5 km. According to the Area Under Curve (AUC) criterium, the models had excellent results. The maps revealed variations on adequability areas all over the Brazilian coast for the mangrove species: Avicennia, Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle L. The potential distribution model allowed the verification how the climatic requirements and NRM influenced the distribution of the mangroves in distinct periods, highlighting the influence of the annual temperature and the vertical distance to the nearest drainage as variables of more contribution. The models alert to the reduction and expansion of adequate areas for the occurrence of mangroves in the future, and suggest proposals of new studies toward more profound investigations about mangrove phytogeography.