IMPLICATIONS OF NATURAL RESOURCES EXPORTS ON THE SOUTHEAST REGION STATES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE PERIOD 2000-2015

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between exports specialization pattern and economic performance of Brazilian Southeast' states. The hypothesis is that economies with intensive natural resources exports may be to obtain lower economic growth rates. The paper realizes an empirical investigation between commodity exports and the state economic performance through the Vector Auto-Regressive models and Impulse Response Functions estimations. The results suggest that Minas Gerais economic activity is positively affected by the commodity exports shocks, and, for São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo, the economic performance showed negatively affected by the increased participation of those products in its exports basket.