[ID 53364] INTERIORIZAÇÃO DA EPIDEMIA DE COVID-19 NA REGIÃO NORDESTE: EXISTEM DIFERENÇAS NA CHANCE DE OCORRÊNCIA DOS ÓBITOS SEGUNDO O PORTE POPULACIONAL DO MUNICÍPIO?

THE SPREAD OF THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC IN NORTHEAST REGION, BRAZIL: ARE THERE DIFFERENCES IN RISK OF DEATH ACCORDING TO THE CITY SIZE?

Abstract

Objectives: to analyze the expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic in the municipalities of all Northeast States of Brazil during May 2020 and to estimate the chance of occurrence of deaths from COVID- 19 comparing large and small/medium-sized municipalities in each State according to data from the official bulletins of the States health departments. Methods: This is an spatio-temporal ecological study that evaluatedin three times from May 7 to 22. The epidemic spread was monitored by percentage of affected municipalities in each States over time. The chances of death from COVID-19 were estimated by ratio between the number of confirmed death and the number of confirmed cases, subtracted number of deaths. Results: The results pointed to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in the northeast region. We verified significant statistically diferences of chance of death from COVID-19 in all States at last one of three times analyzed. In Ceará, Maranhão and Paraíba the chance of death from COVID-19 was higher for population affected who reside in large municipalities (more than 100 thousand inhabitants). While in other States of Northeast the chances of death were higher in small or medium-sized municipalities. Conclusion: The findings suggest the unequal occurrence of COVID-19 due to the social inequalities and the disparities in access care, which increase the complexity of the COVID-19 epidemic in territories with high social vulnerability. The timely dissemination of these information is an opportunity to guide resources and control measures implementation.